SOCR Data Dinov 11 08 08 PresidentialElections

SOCR Data - Popular vs. Electoral Vote in US Presidential Elections (1828-2008)

Data Description

Presidential Electoral Vote

These data represent the margin of victory in the popular vote in percentage points (e.g., explanatory variable) vs the margin of victory in the Electoral College in percentage points (e.g., response variable) for the winner in all Presidential Elections since 1828.

Source

• Presidential Election Mandates

Data Table

President	Election Year	popular vote		electoral vote		Difference between popular & electoral vote %
		%	advantage	%	advantage
Andrew_Jackson	1828	56.1	12.5	68.2	36.4	12.1
Andrew_Jackson	1832	54.2	16.8	76.0	59.0	21.8
Martin_van_Buren	1836	50.8	14.2	57.8	33.0	7.0
William_Henry_Harrison	1840	52.9	6.1	79.6	59.2	26.7
James_K_Polk	1844	49.5	1.4	61.8	23.6	12.3
Zachary_Taylor	1848	47.3	4.8	56.2	12.4	8.9
Franklin_Pierce	1852	50.8	6.9	85.8	71.6	35.0
James_Buchanan	1856	45.3	12.2	58.8	20.3	13.5
Abraham_Lincoln	1860	39.9	10.4	59.4	35.6	19.5
Abraham_Lincoln	1864	55.1	10.2	90.6	81.6	35.5
Ulysses_S_Grant	1868	52.7	5.4	72.8	45.6	20.1
Ulysses_S_Grant	1872	55.6	11.8	81.9	63.8	26.3
Rutherford_B_Hayes	1876	48.0	-3.0	50.1	0.2	2.1
James_Garfield	1880	48.3	0.1	58.0	16.0	9.7
Grover_Cleveland_I	1884	48.9	0.7	54.6	9.2	5.7
Benjamin_Harrison	1888	47.8	-0.8	58.1	16.2	10.3
Grover_Cleveland_II	1892	46.0	3.0	62.4	29.7	16.4
William_McKinley	1896	51.1	5.3	61.0	21.4	9.9
William_McKinley	1900	51.7	6.2	65.3	30.6	13.6
Theodore_Roosevelt	1904	56.4	18.8	70.6	41.2	14.2
William_Howard_Taft	1908	51.6	8.6	66.5	33.0	14.9
Woodrow_Wilson	1912	41.8	14.4	81.9	65.3	40.1
Woodrow_Wilson	1916	49.2	3.1	52.2	4.4	3.0
Warren_G_Harding	1920	60.3	26.2	76.1	52.2	15.8
Calvin_Coolidge	1924	54.0	25.2	71.9	46.3	17.9
Herbert_Hoover	1928	58.2	17.4	83.6	67.2	25.4
Franklin_D_Roosevelt	1932	57.4	17.8	88.9	77.8	31.5
Franklin_D_Roosevelt	1936	60.8	24.3	98.5	97.0	37.7
Franklin_D_Roosevelt	1940	54.7	9.9	84.6	69.2	29.9
Franklin_D_Roosevelt	1944	53.4	7.5	81.4	62.8	28.0
Harry_S_Truman	1948	49.5	4.4	57.1	21.5	7.6
Dwight_D_Eisenhower	1952	54.9	10.5	83.2	66.4	28.3
Dwight_D_Eisenhower	1956	57.4	15.4	86.1	72.4	28.7
John_F_Kennedy	1960	49.7	0.2	56.4	15.6	6.7
Lyndon_B_Johnson	1964	61.1	22.6	90.3	80.6	29.2
Richard_Nixon	1968	43.4	0.7	55.9	20.4	12.5
Richard_Nixon	1972	60.7	23.2	96.7	93.5	36.0
Jimmy_Carter	1976	50.1	2.1	55.2	10.6	5.1
Ronald_Reagan	1980	50.7	9.7	90.9	81.8	40.2
Ronald_Reagan	1984	58.8	18.2	97.6	95.2	38.8
George_HW_Bush	1988	53.4	7.8	79.2	58.6	25.8
William_J_Clinton	1992	43.0	5.6	68.8	37.6	25.8
William_J_Clinton	1996	49.2	8.5	70.4	40.8	21.2
George_W_Bush	2000	47.9	-0.5	50.4	1.0	2.5
George_W_Bush	2004	50.7	2.4	53.2	6.5	2.5
Barack_Obama	2008	52.6	6.44	69.3	37.55	16.7

Example: Bubble Chart

You can paste these data in any of the SOCR Analyses or Charts to obtain quantitative results of explore the data graphically. For instance, you can paste these data in the SOCR Bubble Chart, map the variables (Year --> X, ElectoralVote --> Y, Diff(Popular-Electoral)Vote --> Z) and click UPDATE Graph to obtain the image below. Notice how the close elections are represented by smaller bubbles near the 50% of the electoral vote line, as the difference between the popular and the electoral votes for tight elections are small.

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