Difference between revisions of "SOCR EduMaterials Activities BaseballSalaryWins"

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==Data==
 
==Data==
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These data are collected from the following resources: [http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm Baseball Payroll], [http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2008-standings.shtml 2008], [http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2009-standings.shtml 2009], and [http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2010-standings.shtml 2010] standings.
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<center>
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{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center; width:30%" border="1"
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|-
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! [http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ Team]||[http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/ League]||2010Wins||2010Losses||2010W-L%||2010Runs||2010RunsAgainst||2010Rundiff||2010Payroll||2009Wins||2009Losses||2009W-L%||2009Runs||2009RunsAgainst||2009Rundiff||2009Payroll||2008Wins||2008Losses||2008W-L%||2008Runs||2008RunsAgainst||2008Rundiff||2008Payroll||TotalWins||TotalPayroll
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|-
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| PHI||NL||97||65||0.599||4.8||4||0.8||141927381||93||69||0.574||5.1||4.4||0.7||113004048||92||70||0.568||4.9||4.2||0.7||98269880||282||353201309
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|-
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| TBR||AL||96||66||0.593||5||4||0.9||71923471||84||78||0.519||5||4.7||0.3||63313035||97||65||0.599||4.8||4.1||0.6||43820597||277||179057103
 +
|-
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| NYY||AL||95||67||0.586||5.3||4.3||1||206333389||103||59||0.636||5.6||4.6||1||201449289||89||73||0.549||4.9||4.5||0.4||209081577||287||616864255
 +
|-
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| MIN||AL||94||68||0.58||4.8||4.1||0.7||97559167||87||76||0.534||5||4.7||0.3||65299267||88||75||0.54||5.1||4.6||0.5||56932766||269||219791200
 +
|-
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| SFG||NL||92||70||0.568||4.3||3.6||0.7||97828833||88||74||0.543||4.1||3.8||0.3||82161450||72||90||0.444||4||4.7||-0.7||76594500||252||256584783
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|-
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| CIN||NL||91||71||0.562||4.9||4.2||0.6||72386544||78||84||0.481||4.2||4.5||-0.3||70968500||74||88||0.457||4.3||4.9||-0.6||74117695||243||217472739
 +
|-
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| ATL||NL||91||71||0.562||4.6||3.9||0.7||84423667||86||76||0.531||4.5||4||0.6||96726167||72||90||0.444||4.6||4.8||-0.2||102365683||249||283515517
 +
|-
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| TEX||AL||90||72||0.556||4.9||4.2||0.6||55250545||87||75||0.537||4.8||4.6||0.3||68646023||79||83||0.488||5.6||6||-0.4||67712326||256||191608894
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|-
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| SDP||NL||90||72||0.556||4.1||3.6||0.5||37799300||75||87||0.463||3.9||4.7||-0.8||42796700||63||99||0.389||3.9||4.7||-0.8||73677616||228||154273616
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|-
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| BOS||AL||89||73||0.549||5||4.6||0.5||162747333||95||67||0.586||5.4||4.5||0.8||122696000||95||67||0.586||5.2||4.3||0.9||133390035||279||418833368
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|-
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| CHW||AL||88||74||0.543||4.6||4.3||0.3||108273197||79||83||0.488||4.5||4.5||0||96068500||89||74||0.546||5||4.5||0.5||121189332||256||325531029
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|-
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| STL||NL||86||76||0.531||4.5||4||0.6||93540753||91||71||0.562||4.5||4||0.6||88528411||86||76||0.531||4.8||4.5||0.3||99624449||263||281693613
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|-
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| TOR||AL||85||77||0.525||4.7||4.5||0.2||62689357||75||87||0.463||4.9||4.8||0.2||80993657||86||76||0.531||4.4||3.8||0.6||97793900||246||241476914
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|-
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| COL||NL||83||79||0.512||4.8||4.4||0.3||84227000||92||70||0.568||5||4.4||0.5||75201000||74||88||0.457||4.6||5.1||-0.5||68655500||249||228083500
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|-
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| OAK||AL||81||81||0.5||4.1||3.9||0.2||51654900||75||87||0.463||4.7||4.7||0||62310000||75||86||0.466||4||4.3||-0.3||47967126||231||161932026
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|-
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| DET||AL||81||81||0.5||4.6||4.6||0||122864929||86||77||0.528||4.6||4.6||0||115085145||74||88||0.457||5.1||5.3||-0.2||137685196||241||375635270
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|-
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| FLA||NL||80||82||0.494||4.4||4.4||0||55641500||87||75||0.537||4.8||4.7||0||36814000||84||77||0.522||4.8||4.8||0||21811500||251||114267000
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|-
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| LAA||AL||80||82||0.494||4.2||4.3||-0.1||105013667||97||65||0.599||5.5||4.7||0.8||113709000||100||62||0.617||4.7||4.3||0.4||119216333||277||337939000
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|-
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| LAD||NL||80||82||0.494||4.1||4.3||-0.2||94945517||95||67||0.586||4.8||3.8||1||100458101||84||78||0.519||4.3||4||0.3||118588536||259||313992154
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|-
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| NYM||NL||79||83||0.488||4||4||0||132701445||70||92||0.432||4.1||4.7||-0.5||135773988||89||73||0.549||4.9||4.4||0.5||137793376||238||406268809
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|-
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| MIL||NL||77||85||0.475||4.6||5||-0.3||81108279||80||82||0.494||4.8||5||-0.2||80257502||90||72||0.556||4.6||4.3||0.4||80937499||247||242303280
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|-
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| HOU||NL||76||86||0.469||3.8||4.5||-0.7||92355500||74||88||0.457||4||4.8||-0.8||102996415||86||75||0.534||4.4||4.6||-0.2||88930414||236||284282329
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|-
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| CHC||NL||75||87||0.463||4.2||4.7||-0.5||146859000||83||78||0.516||4.4||4.2||0.2||135050000||97||64||0.602||5.3||4.2||1.1||118345833||255||400254833
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|-
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| CLE||AL||69||93||0.426||4||4.6||-0.7||61203967||65||97||0.401||4.8||5.3||-0.6||81625567||81||81||0.5||5||4.7||0.3||78970066||215||221799600
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|-
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| WSN||NL||69||93||0.426||4||4.6||-0.5||61425000||59||103||0.364||4.4||5.4||-1||59328000||59||102||0.366||4||5.1||-1.1||54961000||187||175714000
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|-
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| KCR||AL||67||95||0.414||4.2||5.2||-1||72267710||65||97||0.401||4.2||5.2||-1||70908333||75||87||0.463||4.3||4.8||-0.6||58245500||207||201421543
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|-
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| BAL||AL||66||96||0.407||3.8||4.8||-1.1||81612500||64||98||0.395||4.6||5.4||-0.8||67101667||68||93||0.422||4.9||5.4||-0.5||67196246||198||215910413
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|-
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| ARI||NL||65||97||0.401||4.4||5.2||-0.8||60718167||70||92||0.432||4.4||4.8||-0.4||73571667||82||80||0.506||4.4||4.4||0.1||66202712||217||200492546
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|-
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| SEA||AL||61||101||0.377||3.2||4.3||-1.1||98376667||85||77||0.525||4||4.3||-0.3||98904167||61||101||0.377||4.1||5||-0.9||117666482||207||314947316
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|-
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| PIT||NL||57||105||0.352||3.6||5.3||-1.7||34943000||62||99||0.385||4||4.8||-0.8||48743000||67||95||0.414||4.5||5.5||-0.9||48689783||186||132375783
 +
|}
 +
</center>
  
 
==Analysis==
 
==Analysis==

Revision as of 12:55, 3 June 2011

SOCR Educational Materials - Activities - SOCR Baseball Payroll and Team Success Activity

Summary

Baseball Salary and Success

This activity will center around investigating how a MLB team's payroll correlates with success. The first step is to use simple regression to compare wins to payroll each year and overall. To do this, go to the mapping tab and select each year's payroll as the independent variable with the corresponding year's wins as the dependent variable.

Goals

The aims of this activity are to:

  • investigate whether baseball salaries and team wins or losses are correlated.
  • demonstrate the use of several SOCR exploratory and quantitative data analysis tools (e.g., SOCR analyses, SOCR charts).
  • explore the relations between multiple variables.

Data

These data are collected from the following resources: Baseball Payroll, 2008, 2009, and 2010 standings.

Team League 2010Wins 2010Losses 2010W-L% 2010Runs 2010RunsAgainst 2010Rundiff 2010Payroll 2009Wins 2009Losses 2009W-L% 2009Runs 2009RunsAgainst 2009Rundiff 2009Payroll 2008Wins 2008Losses 2008W-L% 2008Runs 2008RunsAgainst 2008Rundiff 2008Payroll TotalWins TotalPayroll
PHI NL 97 65 0.599 4.8 4 0.8 141927381 93 69 0.574 5.1 4.4 0.7 113004048 92 70 0.568 4.9 4.2 0.7 98269880 282 353201309
TBR AL 96 66 0.593 5 4 0.9 71923471 84 78 0.519 5 4.7 0.3 63313035 97 65 0.599 4.8 4.1 0.6 43820597 277 179057103
NYY AL 95 67 0.586 5.3 4.3 1 206333389 103 59 0.636 5.6 4.6 1 201449289 89 73 0.549 4.9 4.5 0.4 209081577 287 616864255
MIN AL 94 68 0.58 4.8 4.1 0.7 97559167 87 76 0.534 5 4.7 0.3 65299267 88 75 0.54 5.1 4.6 0.5 56932766 269 219791200
SFG NL 92 70 0.568 4.3 3.6 0.7 97828833 88 74 0.543 4.1 3.8 0.3 82161450 72 90 0.444 4 4.7 -0.7 76594500 252 256584783
CIN NL 91 71 0.562 4.9 4.2 0.6 72386544 78 84 0.481 4.2 4.5 -0.3 70968500 74 88 0.457 4.3 4.9 -0.6 74117695 243 217472739
ATL NL 91 71 0.562 4.6 3.9 0.7 84423667 86 76 0.531 4.5 4 0.6 96726167 72 90 0.444 4.6 4.8 -0.2 102365683 249 283515517
TEX AL 90 72 0.556 4.9 4.2 0.6 55250545 87 75 0.537 4.8 4.6 0.3 68646023 79 83 0.488 5.6 6 -0.4 67712326 256 191608894
SDP NL 90 72 0.556 4.1 3.6 0.5 37799300 75 87 0.463 3.9 4.7 -0.8 42796700 63 99 0.389 3.9 4.7 -0.8 73677616 228 154273616
BOS AL 89 73 0.549 5 4.6 0.5 162747333 95 67 0.586 5.4 4.5 0.8 122696000 95 67 0.586 5.2 4.3 0.9 133390035 279 418833368
CHW AL 88 74 0.543 4.6 4.3 0.3 108273197 79 83 0.488 4.5 4.5 0 96068500 89 74 0.546 5 4.5 0.5 121189332 256 325531029
STL NL 86 76 0.531 4.5 4 0.6 93540753 91 71 0.562 4.5 4 0.6 88528411 86 76 0.531 4.8 4.5 0.3 99624449 263 281693613
TOR AL 85 77 0.525 4.7 4.5 0.2 62689357 75 87 0.463 4.9 4.8 0.2 80993657 86 76 0.531 4.4 3.8 0.6 97793900 246 241476914
COL NL 83 79 0.512 4.8 4.4 0.3 84227000 92 70 0.568 5 4.4 0.5 75201000 74 88 0.457 4.6 5.1 -0.5 68655500 249 228083500
OAK AL 81 81 0.5 4.1 3.9 0.2 51654900 75 87 0.463 4.7 4.7 0 62310000 75 86 0.466 4 4.3 -0.3 47967126 231 161932026
DET AL 81 81 0.5 4.6 4.6 0 122864929 86 77 0.528 4.6 4.6 0 115085145 74 88 0.457 5.1 5.3 -0.2 137685196 241 375635270
FLA NL 80 82 0.494 4.4 4.4 0 55641500 87 75 0.537 4.8 4.7 0 36814000 84 77 0.522 4.8 4.8 0 21811500 251 114267000
LAA AL 80 82 0.494 4.2 4.3 -0.1 105013667 97 65 0.599 5.5 4.7 0.8 113709000 100 62 0.617 4.7 4.3 0.4 119216333 277 337939000
LAD NL 80 82 0.494 4.1 4.3 -0.2 94945517 95 67 0.586 4.8 3.8 1 100458101 84 78 0.519 4.3 4 0.3 118588536 259 313992154
NYM NL 79 83 0.488 4 4 0 132701445 70 92 0.432 4.1 4.7 -0.5 135773988 89 73 0.549 4.9 4.4 0.5 137793376 238 406268809
MIL NL 77 85 0.475 4.6 5 -0.3 81108279 80 82 0.494 4.8 5 -0.2 80257502 90 72 0.556 4.6 4.3 0.4 80937499 247 242303280
HOU NL 76 86 0.469 3.8 4.5 -0.7 92355500 74 88 0.457 4 4.8 -0.8 102996415 86 75 0.534 4.4 4.6 -0.2 88930414 236 284282329
CHC NL 75 87 0.463 4.2 4.7 -0.5 146859000 83 78 0.516 4.4 4.2 0.2 135050000 97 64 0.602 5.3 4.2 1.1 118345833 255 400254833
CLE AL 69 93 0.426 4 4.6 -0.7 61203967 65 97 0.401 4.8 5.3 -0.6 81625567 81 81 0.5 5 4.7 0.3 78970066 215 221799600
WSN NL 69 93 0.426 4 4.6 -0.5 61425000 59 103 0.364 4.4 5.4 -1 59328000 59 102 0.366 4 5.1 -1.1 54961000 187 175714000
KCR AL 67 95 0.414 4.2 5.2 -1 72267710 65 97 0.401 4.2 5.2 -1 70908333 75 87 0.463 4.3 4.8 -0.6 58245500 207 201421543
BAL AL 66 96 0.407 3.8 4.8 -1.1 81612500 64 98 0.395 4.6 5.4 -0.8 67101667 68 93 0.422 4.9 5.4 -0.5 67196246 198 215910413
ARI NL 65 97 0.401 4.4 5.2 -0.8 60718167 70 92 0.432 4.4 4.8 -0.4 73571667 82 80 0.506 4.4 4.4 0.1 66202712 217 200492546
SEA AL 61 101 0.377 3.2 4.3 -1.1 98376667 85 77 0.525 4 4.3 -0.3 98904167 61 101 0.377 4.1 5 -0.9 117666482 207 314947316
PIT NL 57 105 0.352 3.6 5.3 -1.7 34943000 62 99 0.385 4 4.8 -0.8 48743000 67 95 0.414 4.5 5.5 -0.9 48689783 186 132375783

Analysis

Exploratory data analysis (EDA)

The correlations between payroll and team success for 2008, 2009, 2010, and overall are 0.327, 0.501, 0.349, and 0.520, respectfully. This indicates that the strength of the relationship varies from year to year.

300px

SOCR Activities PowerTransformGraphing Dinov 091707 Fig3.jpg SOCR Activities PowerTransformGraphing Dinov 091707 Fig3.jpg SOCR Activities PowerTransformGraphing Dinov 091707 Fig3.jpg

Quantitative data analysis (QDA)

ANOVA

The next step is to compare the average payroll each year in the American League and National League. To do this, use ANOVA and select league as the independent variable and each year's payroll as the dependent variable. The p-value for each year is 0.328 for 2008, 0.442 for 2009, 0.434 for 2010 and 0.381 overall. This suggests that there is no significant difference between the two leagues.

T-Test

Another thing to check is how the average payroll changed from year to year. To do this, select the Two-paired sample T test and choose 2008 and 2009 as the variables, then repeat with 2009 and 2010 as the variables. The test for 2008 and 2009 has a p-value of .315. The test for 2009 and 2010 has a p-value of .167. This means there isn't evidence of a significant increase in payroll each year.

Multiple linear regression

As a team's record is heavily influenced by the number of runs they score and the number of runs they allow, it would be interesting to check the relationship between each of those and wins as well as the relationship between them and payroll. To do this, first use multiple regression with wins each year as the dependent variable and runs and runs against the independent variables.

Conclusion

  • For 2008, the slope estimates are 17.421 for runs and -16.904 for runs against. For 2009, the slope estimates are 15.715 for runs and -19.459 for runs against. For 2010, the slope estimates are 15.538 for runs and -14.809 for runs against. This suggests that scoring more runs was slightly more important in 2008 and 2010 while allowing fewer runs was more important in 2009. Next, use simple regression to compare the correlation and plot the relationship between payroll and runs and between payroll and runs against each year.
  • In 2008, the correlation between payroll and runs was .281, and the correlation between payroll and runs against was -.261. For 2009 they were .372 and -.290 respectively. For 2010 they were .364 and -.111 respectively. This suggests that it is easier to use payroll spending improve hitting than it is to improve pitching. This suggests that the ability to still get good pitching is what allows some teams with lower payrolls to remain competitive.


See also


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